Australia could shoulder more than $100 billion in costs to children and young people from climate disasters before 2060, according to a report from UNICEF Australia.
Analysis by Deloitte Access Economics looking at the economic and social impacts of disasters such as floods and bushfires on children and young people in Australia showed disrupted home and school life in the wake them also has a negative effect on productivity in the long term.
The impacts and costs affecting children and young people are modelled under three levels of warming, showing a projected rise over time as warming increases and hazards and extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.
Despite Australia’s emissions decreasing towards the national net zero target by 2050, the report notes that global temperatures continue to rise, with the only question mark over the degree of that warming increase.
By 2060, annual costs for impacts of disasters on children and young people are estimated to be $8.3 billion under low levels of warming, $10.4 billion under mid-level warming, and $12.1 billion under high levels of warming.
The greatest drivers of costs from disasters for children and young people in an average year, estimated to total $6.3 billion, are:
- $5.3 billion in lost education and potential earnings from reduced year 12 completion
- $662 million in mental health expenses
- $192 million from incidence of child abuse
- $93 million from disrupted employment of young people.
Cumulative costs would be $100.3 billion by 2060 under low levels of warming and reach as much as $109.6 billion by 2060 under high levels of warming.
Katie Maskiell, Head of Policy and Advocacy for UNICEF Australia said disasters are a productivity Achilles, and the projected economic costs should be a wake-up call on the scale of the real financial and social impacts children and young people will face.
“The report shows the immediate physical dangers to children from disasters are relatively low, due to Australia’s well established evacuation procedures and emergency services, but children’s developmental stage means they are more at risk of long-term impacts that uniquely apply to their age. This is often overlooked in disaster recovery planning, and young people who experience disasters due to warming in future generations will face significant challenges to their development, and productivity challenges for the nation as a whole,” she said.
UNICEF Australia is calling for a National Disaster Framework for Children and Young People to improve disaster resilience and to ensure the supports that children and families rely on are available in times of crisis. The continuity of these services in disaster recovery also aids child protection and mental health.
“The biggest impacts on children who experience disasters comes from the disruption of normal life, including school, and the trauma of a shocking event that destroys homes and communities. The strain these disasters put on families, and disruption to services that are a safeguard for children can also lead to increased incidence of emotional and physical child abuse. All these things have impacts beyond the disaster occurring and create real costs to society,” Ms. Maskiell said.
“First and foremost, Australia must take urgent and ambitious action to more rapidly reduce emissions and transition to renewable energy. At the same time, we must protect children and young people against future impacts and economic costs,” she said.
Robust strategies are needed to ensure that education can continue when students cannot access schools and early learning; and that design and construction of these services is more climate resilient in the future to ensure they can reopen quickly when it is safe for children to access them.
UNICEF Australia also recommends a localised approach be taken to service needs of children in communities that may already be experiencing disadvantage.
“When planning disaster recovery, we cannot discount the importance of measures that reduce long term impacts, and of ensuring that children in communities already experiencing socio-economic pressures are not further disadvantaged,” Ms. Maskiell said.
Queensland is the most at-risk state, estimated to carry 38 per cent of costs for children and young people impacted by disasters, followed by New South Wales at 29 per cent, and Victoria accounting for 15 per cent of costs.
The report indicates that in an average year disasters will impact almost 1 million children in some way, making the cost per disaster impacted child around $6,700 each year.
Mitigating emissions could reduce costs by up to $3.8 billion annually by 2060.
David Rumbens, Partner at Deloitte Access Economics, said more data is needed to equip policymakers with the information to improve disaster responses for children and young people.
“With more information we could see costs beyond this report’s analysis, and these measurements will be critical for governments social and economic planning.
“Investing in longitudinal studies and improved age-based data collection will enable more comprehensive understanding and more effective, evidence-based policies to reduce costs and ensure children’s wellbeing in the long term,” Mr. Rumbens said.
Read the full report here